Chelsea has been a vastly different team since a manager change, and it hopes to ride its momentum past Real Madrid on Wednesday in the second leg of their 2020-21 UEFA Champions League semifinal. Thomas Tuchel is 15-6-2 since taking over in January, and the Blues have kept clean sheets in 11 of 15 league games since then. They dominated early in last week's first leg, but a driving rain changed the flow and they only came away with a 1-1 draw. Real Madrid is a record 13-time European champion, but Chelsea hopes playing on its home turf at Stamford Bridge propels it to its first final since it won its only title in 2012.
Kickoff from London is set for 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+. William Hill Sportsbook lists Chelsea as a 0.5-goal and +123 money-line favorite (risk $100 to win $123) in its latest Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds, while the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before locking in any Real Madrid vs. Chelsea picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.
Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine last year, the algorithm is up more than $8,200.
Now, the model has set its sights on Chelsea vs. Real Madrid. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several odds and trends for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea:
- Real Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Chelsea -0.5 (+120)
- Real Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
- Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Madrid +240, Chelsea +123, Draw +225
- Real Madrid: Karim Benzema has 71 Champions League goals, tied for fourth all-time.
- Chelsea: Seven of Kai Havertz's eight goals have come at Stamford Bridge.
Why you should back Chelsea
The Blues have the slight advantage of an away goal, so as the game goes on, Madrid might need to force the issue, leaving options for Timo Werner, Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic to strike. Werner has 11 goals and 11 assists in all competitions this season, and Havertz and Pulisic have combined for 14 goals. Mason Mount has been Chelsea's most consistent player, constantly setting up teammates for success and netting eight goals and adding seven assists. He is second in the Premier League in shot-creating actions (146) and key passes (82).
Chelsea has been tough to score on this season, shutting out teams in 17 of the 22 matches under Tuchel. Cesar Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva are elite defenders in front of goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, who has 24 clean sheets in 39 appearances this season. Outside backs Ben Chilwell (three goals, seven assists) and Reece James (five assists) play a key role on both ends. Real Madrid has not won in England since a UCL group-stage game against Liverpool in 2014, going 0-2-2 since then, and Tuchel has never lost to Los Blancos (1-4-0) as a manager.
Why you should back Real Madrid
Madrid has won four of its past five knockout games against English clubs and comes in unbeaten in its past 19 matches. Los Blancos have made the semifinals in nine of the past 11 seasons, so the pressure of the moment certainly won't faze them. They could receive a huge boost with the return of captain and top defender Sergio Ramos from injury, and they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six matches without him. Former Chelsea goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has 20 clean sheets in 45 matches and leads La Liga in save percentage at 82.2.
The offense is led by one of the best midfields in the world, and it sets the table for elite striker Karim Benzema. The Frenchman has 28 goals in 41 matches overall this season and had the critical equalizer last week. Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric facilitate the action, with Kroos leading the squad with 10 assists and the others combining for 11 goals and 10 assists. Vinicius Junior is a major threat and has six goals this season. The confident young Brazilian plays his best in the biggest matches and scored twice in the quarterfinals against Liverpool.
How to make Champions League picks for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea
The model is leaning under on the total and it has also locked in a strong money-line pick as well as the exact projected final score. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Real Madrid vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up over $8,200.
